Start Drake equation applied to dating

Drake equation applied to dating

In the galaxy's younger days, stars were being formed at a much higher rate.

Estimates are that the rate of formation of Sun sized stars is on the order of 1 per year.

At the time the Drake Equation was created, the only planets that were known were those of our own solar system.

It was believed that gravitational disruptions in multiple star systems would prevent planets from forming.

This hypothesis removed approximately 50 percent of the stars from consideration.

In new research, Adam Frank and Woodruff Sullivan offer a new equation (bottom row)'The question of whether advanced civilizations exist elsewhere in the universe has always been vexed with three large uncertainties in the Drake equation,' said Adam Frank, professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Rochester and co-author of the paper.'We didn't know how many of those stars had planets that could potentially harbor life, how often life might evolve and lead to intelligent beings, and how long any civilizations might last before becoming extinct.' Pictured is a plot of human population, total energy consumption and atmospheric CO2 concentration from 10,000 BCE to today.

Scientists used data such as this to estimate how quickly a civilization might die out'This shifted focus eliminates the uncertainty of the civilization lifetime question and allows us to address what we call the 'cosmic archaeological question' - how often in the history of the universe has life evolved to an advanced state?

For us to have much chance of success in finding another 'contemporary' active technological civilization, on average they must last much longer than our present lifetime.'Our result is the first time anyone has been able to set any empirical answer for that question and it is astonishingly likely that we are not the only time and place that an advance civilization has evolved.' The Earth, seen from the unmanned Apollo 4 at an altitude of about 9,544 nautical miles miles. of Washington astronomer Woody Sullivan and co-author ask, have there been other species with energy-intensive technology?

By Jim Plaxco In November 2006, I was a participant in a panel discussion Defining the Drake Equation at the Windycon Science Fiction Convention.

The study shows the odds of an a civilisation developing need to be less than one in 10 billion trillion for humans to be the only intelligent life in the universe.

Pictured is an artist's impression of an Earth-like planet'That means that even if there have been a thousand civilizations in our own galaxy, if they live only as long as we have been around - roughly ten thousand years - then all of them are likely already extinct.'And others won't evolve until we are long gone.

Estimates for the age of the Milky Way also vary from a low of 800 million years to a high of 13 billion years.